Key information
Coverage of all the main shipping sectors: oil tankers, chemicals, LPG, LNG, dry bulk, containership, break bulk and port developments
18 month forecasts based on scenario analysis of Iraqi reconstruction, with a longer term perspective
Unique insight and analysis of the regional and global impacts
Highlights which sectors will benefit and which might suffer
Provides a sound basis on which to base decisions at a time of continued uncertainty for the global economy
A concise briefing paper that compliments a wider range of Drewry services embracing port consultancy, benchmarking, technical and financial advisory
This report provides a valuable insight into the post conflict era and is invaluable for charterers, shipowners, financiers and anyone whose business relies on the fortunes of the global shipping markets. It is a must read for anyone in shipping unravelling the commercial implications of Iraqi reconstruction.
The present conflict in Iraq has brought geopolitical instability to the fore once again. Against this background Drewry Shipping Consultants has produced its latest report,
Iraq: Impact on Global Shipping. Drawing together a team of specialists we have written this report to provide a clear understanding of the way in which the shipping markets will develop over the next 18 months. Iraq in itself is not a major driver of the global shipping markets, or even the regional market in the Middle East. But, events in Iraq are important in shaping the future of the global economy. This report draws together two alternate scenarios. Against this background we forecast developments on a regional and global level in the oil tanker, LPG, chemical, LNG, dry bulk, and container shipping markets, as well as providing a review of the regional infrastructure.
Many people are focused on the length of the conflict in Iraq, but this misses the real issues and drivers at work. In the oil market Iraq does provide an important source of demand for Suezmax and Vlccs, but cessation of Iraqi exports is not in itself a threat to the global markets. Conversely, loss of supplies from several countries is.
Many people overlook the fact that Iraq is already a major grain importer, and there is no reason to assume a surge in imports longer term. In fact, it is infrastructure which is the more significant issue in this sector of the market.
Global growth does have a clear impact on the container shipping markets but we are able to show that under one scenario, the difference between a prolonged and quick conflict could amount to less than a 100,000 teu impact on global container trade. At a time of uncertainty this report provides clear, well-informed and reasoned analysis and shows the most likely way in which the global shipping markets will evolve over the next 18 months regardless of the length of the current conflict in Iraq.
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